Of all the GOAT debates in sports, one of the easiest to call comes from football, because there isn’t a debate at all. Tom Brady made the conversation an open-and-shut affair. There are no competition concerns, numbers to scrutinize, or “yeah, but”s to explore. The only mystery isn’t who the GOAT is, but how it ended up being the 199th pick of an NFL draft. Let’s explore what makes a skinny 6th round quarterback in the world’s most brutal sport the unequivocal greatest of all time.
The Leader in Everything
It’s easy to start with statistics, and there’s no reason to bury the lede, so let’s begin there. The most important position in all of sports is, arguably, quarterback. There have been dozens of phenomenal quarterbacks in NFL history. What makes Tom Brady so unique is that he has more passing yards, passing touchdowns, 4th quarter comebacks, game-winning drives, regular season wins, postseason wins, Super Bowl victories, and Super Bowl MVPs than all of them. His 12 combined Super Bowl rings and Super Bowl MVPs are five more than any other player in NFL history. His Approximate Value–a statistic created by Pro Football Reference to estimate career value–is 49 more than any other player, which is greater than the difference between 2nd place and 9th place. He not only has the greatest career in history, but his 2007 regular season is arguably the greatest season in history.
Impact on Winning
Brady’s career statistics are enough to end the debate, but there are several other angles that bolster his legacy. For instance, Brady’s impact on winning is unrivaled in the sport. Bill Belichick is often included on the Mount Rushmore of NFL head coaches, and rightfully so. Belichick has a record six Super Bowl victories as a head coach, and appeared in a record nine Super Bowls. However, Belichick owes quite a bit to Brady for his success. Belichick’s career regular season record without Brady is 83-104 (.444). With Brady? Well things look a little sunnier at 219-64 (.774). Belichick’s career playoff record without Brady stands at just 1-2 (.333). Again, with Brady, that record balloons to 30-11 (.732). Certainly, there was some mutualism between Brady and Belichick in New England, but Belichick was unsuccessful in three NFL stints without Brady. Brady without Belichick? This is where Brady’s legacy reaches the land beyond the land of the absurd. Brady left New England to be the starting quarterback for Tampa Bay in 2020. Tampa had not made the playoffs in the previous 12 seasons, and carried a 7-9 record in 2019. In Brady’s first season without Belichick, he was the MVP of the Super Bowl! Brady would go on to lead the Bucs to the playoffs in all three of his seasons in Tampa, and did so in his mid-40s. Brady’s career regular season without Belichick is 32-18 (.640), and his playoff record is 5-2 (.714). It is rare in sports that we get to see such a definitive conclusion on the relative importance of a single player as we’ve been able to see with Brady. His massive success with and without Belichick, and with and without the Patriots and Bucs, combined with Belichick and Tampa’s poor records without Brady shows just how instrumental Brady was to his winning endeavors.
Sustained Excellence
Brady’s massive statistical ledger and his impact on winning are more than enough to close the book on this debate, but there’s more. Brady’s sustained excellence is only rivaled by LeBron James in the history of professional sports. Brady led the NFL in passing yards in his 20s, 30s, and 40s. He did the same with touchdowns. He won multiple Super Bowls in his 20s, 30s, and 40s. As a starting quarterback, Brady was 70-24 (.745) in his 20s, 113-28 (.801) in his 30s, and 68-30 (.694) in his 40s. There are only three quarterbacks in history besides Brady who won two Super Bowls with at least a .694 career winning %, and Brady accomplished that in his 20s, 30s, and 40s.
Brady’s sustained excellence shows up even more if we move beyond the fact that he’s the all time leader in so many categories, and explore just how big his margin is over second place in those categories. His 10 Super Bowl appearances are four more than any other player. His 251 regular season wins are 65 more than any other player. The difference between Brady and 2nd place is the same as the difference between 2nd and 12th place. Brady’s regular season win total is twice as many as all but 8 quarterbacks in NFL history. Brady’s 35 playoff wins are more than double any other quarterback in history. He has twice as many passing yards as all but 18 quarterbacks, and twice as many passing touchdowns as all but 12.
The Sneaky O.G.
Perhaps most underexplored on Brady’s resume is how effective he was with his feet. Yes, the player in NFL history that you’d pick last in a 40-yard dash competition is arguably the greatest short yardage QB of all-time. Brady’s 124 conversions on third or fourth-and-1 are the most since 2000. His 90.5% conversion rate is the 2nd highest in that same timeframe. Brady’s 238 career rushing first downs are more than Peyton Manning and Drew Brees combined. He’s 18th on the postseason list for rushing touchdowns, including running backs! The most unstoppable weapon in the NFL today is the Brotherly Shove. It’s just under 90% success rate is so effective that owners considered banning the play following the 2024-25 regular season. Long before the Eagles perfected short yardage conversions, Tom Brady had the art of the quarterback sneak mastered at an even higher success rate. Brady’s 5.24 40-yard-dash didn’t win him many footraces, but nothing deflates a defense more than an “and short” conversion, and Brady did it better than anyone.
That’s a wrap.
If we had the ability to create an NFL player with 99s in every category, that player would be hard-pressed to duplicate Tom Brady’s career accomplishments. He isn’t just first in everything, he’s first in everything by a lot. He didn’t just win more than anyone, he left no doubt as to who was most responsible for it. He didn’t just play longer than anyone, he sustained excellence at a level that is unheard of in professional sports. Brady didn’t just kill Super Bowl dreams, he killed the GOAT debate. Thanks, Tom!
this is all well and good, but it boils down to “he succeeded and was part of teams which (in part because of his contributions) succeeded”. as a counterpoint, from an on-field perspective, i find it hard to pinpoint any seasons outside of his absurd 2007 and his 12-game masterclass in 2016 where he was truly elite. any other year i look at, my conclusion is that tom brady *performed his role*. he was very frequently a consistent and accurate quarterback on a team that led with the defense and emphasized high-percentage short passing on offense. that’s not a knock on his skillset, and he did prove that he had a very competent deep ball when he was able to throw to the likes of randy moss; but when a player like peyton manning, in the same era, put elite performances on the field every single game on teams which often struggled mightily defensively and had little organic run game to speak of, it’s hard for me to accept brady as better. he so rarely had to be truly special, and very often ended up just being the platonic ideal of a baker mayfield – crisp, smart, accurate, *very good* certainly, but just a cog in the greater machine of the team rather than an entity who transcends the game of football.
Hey Doyle,
Your argument implies that any quarterback who plays with a good defense is automatically disqualified from being the greatest QB of all time. Do you think Manning would have those career numbers had he played with better defenses? Teams that struggle defensively have more reason to throw the ball. That *inflates* QB statistics. I would expect Brady’s numbers to climb with a poor defense. I would also expect Brady’s numbers to climb had he played with Randy Moss for 11 seasons like Manning had the luxury of playing with Marvin Harrison. The constant for the Patriots over 20 years, 6 Super Bowl wins, and 9 Super Bowl appearances was Brady. The cast of characters changed, but the winning didn’t. They didn’t win before him or after him. The winning started when he arrived and ended when he left. He won a Super Bowl as soon as he left New England for a franchise that hadn’t made the playoffs in 12 seasons. Manning was a great QB which is why I have him in the top 5 all-time regardless of position. However, the difference between what Brady has on his resume and Manning has on his couldn’t be more stark.
if i may make a rebuttal here, the 2008 patriots went 11-5 with matt cassell, the 2016 patriots went 2-0 with jimmy garoppolo and 1-1 with jacoby brissett, and the patriots any time they rested brady at the end of games had a habit of making his backups look great and getting them paid (see brian hoyer – go browns!). these quarterbacks never saw great success or great play outside of new england, although garoppolo – easily the best of them – was certainly a decent starter.
the patriots were also a much better team than bledsoe made it look when brady arrived. drew was fundamentally the wrong quarterback for the team, a career 56% passer with an interception rate above 3%. he had a career anya through 2001 below 6 and got there in all the wrong ways, with swingy plays. the 2001 patriots had an elite defense and a solid run game, so putting a gunslinger behind center was all wrong and predictably led to two close losses before his injury. enter brady – 64% completion, 2.9% interception rate, and an anya of 5.3 that barely ranked above league average were good enough to get out of the way of the juggernaut on defense.
brady’s departure for tampa brought with it a decline for the patriots, sure, but part of that was it being 2020. covid and injuries hit the patriots harder than most, and it didn’t help that cam newton posted an anya in the bottom quarter of the league. fast forward to 2021 and we see the team performing about where it should have been expected to – with mac jones playing league average quarterback, they won 10 games and made the playoffs.
as for the buccaneers, they added 4 wins to their 2019 total in 2020, but they also bought *big* in the 2020 offseason. and with brady replacing jameis winston and his 2019 league-leading 4.8% interception rate and league average anya, it’s fundamentally a repeat of brady replacing bledsoe in 2001. a quarterback who is actively losing his team games gets replaced by a quarterback who *wasn’t actually fundamentally better (brady also posted a league average anya in 2019)* but who doesn’t throw away games (1.3% int rate in 2019). and while brady played as a top 25% qb in 2020, raising his anya to an eighth-best 7.5, he saw his completion percentage barely squeak over league average (and below newton’s) and his interception rate rise to 2% (just barely to the good of league average).
after 2020, the buccaneers had the greatest offseason successes of any team in the salary cap era, returning all 22 starters for 2021 and adding enormous talent both for 2021 and for 2022, rendering any comparison to the 2019 squad moot. brady had another top 8 year for 2021, and finally got his completion rate and interception rate significantly better than league average, both of which would remain there for 2022 while his anya dropped to just within the top half of the league.
for 2023, the buccaneers replaced brady with baker mayfield, who proceeded to have a very tom brady-like year. here’s two stat lines, tell me which was brady’s 2022 and which was mayfield’s 2023:
67% cmp, 3.4% td, 1.2% int, 6.1 anya
65% cmp, 4.9% td, 1.8% int, 6.5 anya
as seen by the comparison, he was very well replaced by baker mayfield, and the team won one more game in 2023 than it did in 2022.
so brady on the buccaneers was, by the numbers, nothing more than a good starting quarterback. therefore, should that title really be given as much importance as it is? wins and championships are, after all, team stats, and while excellent individual play can certainly influence those stats, brady did not display excellent individual play between 2020 and 2022.
i hate to bring to mind the cliché that tom brady was a system quarterback, especially as he succeeded in several different types of offense and on several different types of team. it would be disingenuous to represent the patriots of the late 2000s and 2010s as having a juggernaut defense the way the early 2000s squads did, and thus to discount that brady was responsible for a larger share of the success through their most successful period. but, to that cliché’s credit, when you examine tom brady as a player, you often find a guy whose skillset lined up perfectly with exactly what the team around him needed, and who rarely had to step outside of that framework in order to create success.
is that a goat candidate? sure. is that a universal consensus goat? i strongly believe it isn’t.
Hey Doyle, I appreciate the counterargument.
Certainly, we could poke holes in any resume. The way to do that with Brady is to have the “system” angle do some seriously heavy lifting. However, the comparison isn’t Brady vs. perfect, it’s Brady vs everyone else. His career AV is 326, which is 49 higher than anyone else in history, and 100 more than all but eight players. That’s pretty crazy for a system QB who won in large part because of great defenses. Cassel would seem to be a solid counterargument (and it is a data point worth looking at), but he faced, by far, the weakest schedule of the first 14 years Brady was in New England. New England’s offense went from an absolutely ridiculous 15.9 OSRS the previous year to a 2.3 OSRS under Cassel. That speaks considerably more to Brady’s greatness than an inflated record as a result of a strength of schedule that Brady would’ve dreamed of playing against. It’s also worth noting that Brady evolved significantly as a QB. He was every bit a “do what needs to be done” QB early on with New England. That wasn’t the case for New England’s final six SB trips under Brady or his SB in Tampa. Brady’s 2021 season with TB is one of the most prolific single-season performances of all time, and he pulled that off at 44 years old. There’s also a huge difference between performing in the regular season vs. performing in the playoffs. The system argument continues to do a lot of heavy lifting in the face of a 35-13 career playoff record. That playoff winning percentage is higher than any regular season QB winning percentage outside of Mahomes (min. 100 starts). Keep in mind, playoff opponents are a murderer’s row compared to regular season schedules. Why hasn’t any other QB won as much as Brady in the playoffs? Who were Brady’s elite offensive teammates? What did Belichick accomplish without Brady? All of the evidence points to Brady being the elixir to winning. There’s also the fact that nobody has come close to achieving his sustained excellence. Your criticism of ’22 Brady is that of a 45 year old QB who just came off two high-level seasons. Even at 45, he carried a 91 QB rating for a injury-riddled team with no semblance of a running game. Comparing that performance to an elite QB (Mayfield, and he is elite) who is 18 years younger is a huge compliment to Brady. The totality of Brady’s resume is significantly stronger than anyone who has ever played. Honestly, the analysis doesn’t need to go beyond 10 SB appearances, 7 SB titles, and 5 SB MVPs at the most important position in the game. There’s plenty more, of course, but those three numbers alone make it a slam dunk, IMO.
okay, jake, you’ve absolutely nailed me with “mayfield is elite” – i’ve been trying to couch my love for mayfield a bit, but ever since the latter two thirds of that 2020 campaign (post-obj freelancing rather than actually running the plays, and not playing in the hilariously ineffective offense of freddie kitchens) saw him post a top 5 cpoe+epa composite (and he absolutely TORCHED the eye test during that time as well, one of the most competently efficient quarterbacks i’ve seen) i’ve beaten that drum *hard*. here i was expecting pushback on daring to compare the great tom brady to baker mayfield, but i see we are absolutely eye to eye on this one. and to that end, brady’s career is much like if baker played at absolute peak baker for conservatively what, 15 years? and then posted what were undeniably two of the greatest and most efficient qb seasons in nfl history in 2007 and 2016, with surely an even better sequel to have come in 2008 (legitimately, part of the reason i brought up cassell is that 2008 is one of the biggest what ifs for me – my honest take is that there was zero chance that team wasn’t landing 19 wins, they were *even better* than the 2007 version and brady was at his most motivated, which for a guy who was one of the most prolific effort players in the league, was certainly of importance)…
with all of that perspective you’ve helped me find, i can see the argument. i still have manning as a *better* player, but that’s also one of my hangups on “greatest” lists – better doesn’t always mean greater, and depending on how you weigh skillsets and performances (and i will say that you’re absolutely correct that for instance playoff success is harder to achieve and thus more important in terms of degree of difficulty versus performance – there’s also the factor of manning’s fairly clear discomfort in cold weather, whereas brady thrived in miserable conditions; that’s part of the playoff difference between them as well, i knew any time the colts went to foxboro for the afc championship that manning would have an uphill battle just because of the conditions before factoring anything else in), better doesn’t even always mean better.
i also want to say, regardless of any disagreement or debate, i’m so happy you not only have this comments section but make the effort to reply, constructively at that, to so many of them. this is the kind of discussion i love to have, and it makes me so happy to engage like this with somebody who has clearly done the work and the research, really put in the effort to know what he’s talking about – i’ve done the research and put in the effort on a few of the players and eras you talk about (and thus i know how much effort this entire project must have taken!) and frankly the conclusions you arrive at match mine in most cases, or at least are close enough that i can understand why you’d have them the way you do. so thank you!
There is no question that “greatness” is open to interpretation not just in terms of number exploration, but also the definition itself. All this lists on this site are resume centric, which leans away from “who is the better player,” although I like to think that the correlation is pretty close to 1:1. I can’t say what Brady would’ve accomplished on the Colts or what Manning would’ve done with New England. So, I try to avoid projecting too much. Aesthetically, there was something about Manning that screamed “archetype” for quarterbacks. So, I get how an approach where “greatness” is defined by projections in a vacuum would elevate Manning. This is a popular approach when people talk about Barry Sanders. However, the archetype/vacuum approach of greatness often misses fatal flaws. Manning–as you mentioned–was not the same QB in inclement weather. That is a as important a factor as any in the Brady-Manning comparison. The same idea exists for Barry Sanders. He could not be relied upon in the red zone, particularly in goal line situations to the point where his backups scored more goal line touchdowns than he did during much of his prime. That’s not a minor detail, especially when his competition for greatness (Emmitt Smith) is one of the greatest goal line backs of all time. Obviously, my focus isn’t the archetype/vacuum approach, but it’s well within someone’s right to define greatness that way. I think the most important thing is for the list maker to be clear about their interpretation of “greatness.”
There’s no shame in being cautious on declaring Mayfield elite. There have been countless QBs over the years who’ve had isolated success and then disappeared. Last year was so good, and this year has been even better that he has arrived, IMO. The surest sign for me is that he appears to be matchup proof. He’s not just feasting on overmatched defenses. Browns fans have to be sick to their stomachs watching him torch NFL defenses.
I’m grateful for the feedback, Doyle! I’ve enjoyed reading your perspective, and the evidence that you’ve brought to support your opinions. This is the type of interaction that I hoped this site would inspire. Thanks for being a part of it!