While nobody is going to confuse Andy Murray with the Big Three of men’s tennis, there is a strong argument to be made that he is the most underrated player in men’s tennis history. Murray’s relatively meager major championship total (3) sticks out as a potential deal-breaker when discussing his place in history. However, the gap between the three GOATs and Murray is arguably the same as the gap between Murray and everyone else from the 21st century. No player in the history of tennis had a more difficult strength of schedule than Murray. His career coincided with the primes of the three greatest players who ever lived. Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal won a combined 66 major championships, and nearly all of them came while Murray was active. This puts some perspective on Murray’s three major championships, 11 major finals, 21 major semifinals, and 30 major quarterfinals. In fact, over the course of Murray’s career, no player outside of the Big Three came close to those numbers. The next closest for each is six major finals, nine major semifinals, and 17 major quarterfinals. 

There was a stretch from 2011-2015 when Murray made it to the quarterfinals in 18 straight major appearances. In the history of tennis, only Federer, Djokovic, Jimmy Connors, and Bill Tilden had longer streaks. At face value, Murray’s totals don’t jump off the screen, but the fact that he was able to carve out that much success while the three greatest tennis players of all-time were in their primes speaks volumes to his accomplishments. In addition to his success in major tournaments, Murray also won 14 Tier 1 titles, reached 21 Tier 1 finals and 33 Tier 1 semifinals, and is the only man in history to win two Olympic individual tennis gold medals. His 14 ATP Masters Series titles only trail the Big Three and Andre Agassi for most all-time, and his 20 ATP Tour titles (majors, ATP-1000, ATP Finals, and Olympics) are the 6th most all-time behind only the Big Three, Pete Sampras, and Agassi. He’s also the only player outside of the Big Three to debut since 1990 who has won at least 200 matches at the majors.

Perhaps most remarkably, Murray achieved a year-end #1 ranking while the holy trinity were active. While the kings of the 80s like Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg, and Mats Wilander won more majors, they would’ve been hard pressed to accomplish what Murray did in the era of the GOATS.

Our love affair with career milestones has resulted in really good players being overlooked, none more than former Twins and Mets pitcher, Johan Santana. Let’s take a look at his unique achievements:

1). Over 12 seasons, Santana posted a lofty .641 winning percentage, which is the 10th best mark of all pitchers debuting since 1960 (min. 10 seasons).

2). His 136 ERA+ is the 5^th highest in the last 100 years (min. 10 seasons).

3). Santana is the only player in MLB history to lead the league in ERA+, WHIP, H/9, strikeouts, and SO/9 in three consecutive seasons.

4). He is one of only four pitchers to lead the league in WHIP for four consecutive seasons (Carl Hubbell, Sandy Koufax, and Clayton Kershaw).

5). Since 1920, he is the only pitcher to lead the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings, games started, ERA+, WHIP, H/9, and SO/9 in the same season.

6). He is one of only seven players to lead the league in ERA+ for three consecutive seasons (Christy Mathewson, Lefty Grove, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Clayton Kershaw).

7). Since 1920, he is one of only four pitchers to lead the league in H/9 for three consecutive seasons (Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax, and Nolan Ryan).

8) He led the league in War for Pitchers three consecutive seasons. In the last 100 years, only Lefty Grove, Robin Roberts, and Randy Johnson have longer streaks.

9). He is the only pitcher in baseball history with multiple Cy Young awards and five top-5 finishes in the Cy Young voting who is not in the Hall of Fame.

Notice that every pitcher listed along side Santana above is in the Hall of Fame. While the list of unique accomplishments on Santana’s resume is befitting of a sure-fire Hall of Famer, he was resoundingly rejected by Hall of Fame voters to the tune of just 2.4% approval. Meanwhile, Sandy Koufax and Hank Greenberg—who, like Santana, didn’t quite nail the longevity component—are celebrated Hall of Famers, and routinely included on top-100 lists, despite playing in significantly less competitive eras. If we’re not going to hold it against Koufax and Greenberg, then we probably shouldn’t hold it against Santana. Hopefully, The Era Committee rights this wrong.

A decade ago, if we squinted hard enough and tilted our heads far enough, we could see a scenario where a talented 25-year-old Alexander Ovechkin, already averaging 50-goals per year, challenges Wayne Gretzky’s record of 895 career goals. With each passing season, our squint steadily relented to the point that entering the 2019-2020 NHL season, the buzz had changed from if Ovi would do it to when. Then COVID-19 hit.

Although the pandemic has produced far worse effects than impacting athletic achievement, our little insignificant world of sports was turned upside down, nonetheless. Many of the impacts have been well-documented including the never-to-be March Madness 2020, the delayed Tokyo Olympics, two-thirds of the MLB season, and home-field advantage in every spectator sport. The macro impact has received most of our attention, but the micro impact is real, and it could be more punitive than we imagined.

While LeBron got the fully intact NBA playoff season he badly needed for his legacy, it is the truncated 2020 and 2021 NHL regular seasons that could prove troublesome for Ovechkin. When Rudy Gobert’s test heard round the world brought social life to a screeching halt, Ovechkin was 188 goals shy of The Great One’s record. The NHL was forced to cancel the last 13 games of Washington’s 2020 regular season and then implemented a 56-game regular season for 2020-2021, resulting in 39 total games that Ovechkin will not get back. That might not sound too problematic, but, at 35, time is Ovi’s nemesis. 

On March 12, 2020—the day the outbreak went viral (in the pop-culture sense)—Ovechkin was on pace to eclipse Gretzky by the 50th game of the 2023-24 regular season. When we add in the 39 deleted games from the 2019-20 and the 2020-21 seasons, the post-COVID projection date moves to the 7th game of the 2024-25 season.

The impact of those 39 games can’t be understated. They are the difference between Ovechkin needing to play 19 and 20 seasons for glory. We are being a little generous with our projection since it assumes Ovechkin continues to score at his career .61 career goals per game rate. That’s probably too optimistic as he approaches 40. As it turns out, we have two pretty good careers to model what we can reasonably expect from Ovi moving forward. Gordie Howe and Brett Hull—#2 and #4 on the all-time goals list—both saw a 20% reduction in their goals per game rates after age 35. If we apply this to our projections, the clock starts ticking even faster.

With the more reasonable goals per game rate, our pre-COVID-19 projection would’ve given us the 45th game of the 2024-25 regular season. That jumps to the 2nd game of the 2025-26 regular season after factoring in the missed 39 games. Ovechkin has already missed four games in 2020-21 due to COVID-19 protocols, pushing our projection date to the 6th game of the 2025-26 regular season.

Regardless of the goals per game rate we use, we see the pandemic moving the projection date to the next regular season. With a 20% reduction in scoring rate, Ovi would need to play until he’s 40. Whether he chooses to play until he’s 40 is one thing; whether he’s capable of playing that long is another story. Hull was cruising at a respectable .39 goals per game at age 39 and seemed poised to make a run at Howe for 2nd all-time on the goals list. When he returned after the 2004 lockout, he lasted five scoreless games before abruptly retiring. No matter how much we’re convinced that this party is different than all the others, it always ends, and it always ends the same: quickly and unforgivingly.   

Fortunately, modern advancements in technology and training may save us yet. Tom Brady just won his 7th Super Bowl and 5th Super Bowl MVP at the infantile age of 43, with no sign of slowing down. It also doesn’t hurt that Ovi’s size and skill set should help stem the effects of aging—at least for a little while. Ultimately, this could end up becoming a case of motivation. When a player reaches the point of diminishing returns, one more season might as well be 10. We only need to listen to the words of Dirk Nowitzki and David Ortiz to understand this. Both willingly retired despite productive final seasons. If Ovi is content with waging a battle of attrition against time, we can start making DC hotel reservations for the second week of October 2025. Otherwise, Gretzky’s mark will end up being the rare thing actually preserved by COVID.